The Cold Energy War and how Europe needs to prepare for it…

Three years after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Europe’s energy security is once again under pressure. But this time, the threat isn’t just Moscow, it’s Washington. The Trump administration has made it clear that Europe is no longer viewed as a trusted ally but as a subordinate. And nowhere is this more evident than in energy policy. Trump’s “Drill, baby, drill” mantra isn’t just a domestic rallying cry, it’s an international directive, an

d the result could be that Europe replaces one energy dependency, Russian pipeline natural gas with expensive American liquefied natural gas (LNG). The lesson is stark: energy import dependence equals vulnerability and Europe’s only viable path forward is to reduce that dependence.

The ultimate solution lies in energy efficiency, electrification, and renewables. Europe needs to use less natural gas. This means savings gas at work and in our homes. Most importantly, it means electrifying as much as we can of European heating be that in our building or in industry. The good news is that the Nordic countries have already done this which means we have huge learnings that can be taken from them. To meet that increasing demand for electricity Europe needs to double down on scaling renewables like solar, wind, and battery storage.

Europe cannot afford to stall its clean energy transition. Electrification of industry and heating through heat pumps, green hydrogen, and industrial electrification must replace gas dependence. At the same time, Europe needs to push the electrification of transport which reduces dependence on oil imports. Modernising grids is also critical as more renewables demand smarter, more flexible and intelligent power systems. This isn’t just about cutting carbon emissions, it’s about geopolitical security. Europe’s reliance on imported fossil fuels has been a strategic liability for decades. It’s time to end it.

The 2025 Munich Security Conference and the White House meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky hammered home another harsh truth: the U.S. is pivoting away from Europe. NATO may still exist, but Washington’s commitment is waning. Europe must wake up. Defence spending must rise, not to serve U.S. interests, but to ensure Europe can defend itself. This means investing in European-made defence technologies, as dependency on U.S. military equipment is another vulnerability. Strengthening intra-European security cooperation is also essential. Protecting energy infrastructure, such as pipelines, LNG terminals, and power grids, against potential disruptions is equally critical.

The battle for technological dominance particularly around AI is raging, primarily between the U.S. and China. Meanwhile back in Europe? It is barely at the starting line with only one company, the French company Mistral AI in the AI race. This isn’t just about economic competitiveness. AI, semiconductors, and digital infrastructure are the backbone of modern geopolitical power. Europe must invest in its own AI and semiconductor industries—it cannot afford to rely entirely on American or Chinese technology. Building sovereign digital infrastructure, such as secure, independent cloud computing and data management systems, is also critical. Fostering stronger public-private partnerships is another must—Europe’s tech sector needs scale, and governments must support it strategically. If Europe remains technologically dependent on the U.S., it risks losing autonomy in cybersecurity, intelligence, and economic policy.

Economic power follows talent. Europe has world-class universities but struggles to commercialise innovation or retain its brightest minds. Worse, it has failed to attract global talent at the scale of the U.S. A competitive Europe requires better incentives for entrepreneurs and scientists. Stronger funding for research and development is also essential, with more venture capital and fewer bureaucratic hurdles. An immigration system that attracts top talent from across the world is another priority—the best minds in AI, energy, and engineering should be building their careers in Europe, not leaving for the U.S. or China. If Europe wants to lead in technology and innovation, it must become a magnet for the world’s best and brightest.*

Europe’s biggest self-imposed weakness is excessive regulation. While strong governance is important, an over-regulated economy stifles growth, discourages investment, and leaves European companies at a disadvantage against U.S. and Chinese firms. Europe must shift from “regulate, baby, regulate” to “compete, baby, compete.” This means simplifying business regulations and streamlining bureaucracy for startups and scale-ups. Encouraging private investment in critical industries is also key. Strengthening capital markets is another priority. Europe needs deeper, more dynamic financial markets to support high-growth industries and military expenditure.

The reality is the world is realigning, and Trump’s America is focused inward. Recent events sent a stark message: the old-world order is crumbling, and Europe is dangerously unprepared. National security cannot depend on U.S. goodwill. Energy security should never again become dependent again on a country like Russia. Economic growth and prosperity cannot be suffocated by overregulation. Innovation cannot be left to Silicon Valley and Shenzhen. The reality is the Cold Energy War is upon us and Europe needs to act now!